Author: aluna Analytics | Date: March 20, 2025 | Sector: Consumer Non-Cyclicals / Food & Beverage | Recommendation: Subscribe (Trading Buy) / Neutral (Long-Term Fundamental)
The forthcoming Initial Public Offering (IPO) of PT Fore Kopi Indonesia Tbk (“Fore Coffee” or the “Company”), scheduled for listing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in April 2025, marks a pivotal development in the Southeast Asian food and beverage landscape. Trading under the ticker $FORE, the Company is offering 1.88 billion new common shares to the public, representing 21.08% of its enlarged paid-up capital. The offering price has been set within a bookbuilding range of IDR 160 to IDR 202 per share, implying a total capital raise of approximately IDR 300.8 billion to IDR 379.8 billion (USD 19–24 million).
From a fundamental perspective, the Company presents a compelling “turnaround and scale” narrative. Having successfully navigated the operational headwinds of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cash-burn phase typical of early-stage startups, financial data reveals a dramatic shift in fortunes. The Company recorded a net profit of IDR 58.2 billion for the full year 2024, a significant reversal from prior years of losses, driven by a 115% year-on-year surge in revenue to IDR 1.04 trillion. This IPO is structured as a growth capital event, with 100% of proceeds directed toward aggressive store expansion into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and vertical integration into the food segment via a new donut sub-brand.
FORE
PT Fore Kopi Indonesia TbkDisclaimer: This research report is produced by aluna Analytics for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Market data is analyzed as of March 20, 2025. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Transaction Overview & Capital Structure Mechanics
The Offering in Detail
The structure of the IPO is designed to maximize the influx of primary capital to fuel immediate operational expansion. Unlike mixed offerings where early investors seek liquidity through secondary shares, this transaction comprises 100% new shares. This is a positive signal for prospective investors, ensuring that their capital is deployed to generate future earnings rather than cashing out existing shareholders.
| Metric | Detail | Analytical Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Ticker Code | FORE | Standard identification on the IDX. |
| Listing Board | Development Board | Expected listing on the Papan Pengembangan, typical for companies in high-growth phases that may not yet meet the net tangible asset requirements of the Main Board or have chosen this board for strategic flexibility. |
| Bookbuilding Period | 19 – 21 March 2025 | A standard three-day pre-marketing window to gauge institutional demand and determine the final strike price. |
| Offering Period | 2 – 8 April 2025 (Est.) | The public offering window following the effective statement from OJK (Target: 27 March 2025). |
| Listing Date | 14 April 2025 (Target) | The scheduled commencement of secondary market trading. |
| IPO Price Range | IDR 160 – IDR 202 | The pricing range implies a valuation sensitivity to market appetite. At IDR 160, the valuation is conservative; at IDR 202, it prices in significant future growth. |
| Shares Offered | 1,880,000,000 New Shares | Represents 21.08% of the enlarged capital post-IPO. This float is sufficient to ensure market liquidity and meet IDX free-float requirements (7.5%). |
| Nominal Value | IDR 70 per share | Standard nominal value for this category of issuance. |
| Target Funds Raised | IDR 300.8B – IDR 379.8B | A “Medium” size IPO. The proceeds are substantial relative to the company’s current equity base (~IDR 223B), implying a significant capitalization event. |
| Warrants | None (0) | The absence of Series I Warrants suggests the issuer and underwriters are confident in the stock’s fundamental appeal and do not require “sweeteners” to attract retail interest. This avoids future dilution overhang. |
| MESOP / ESOP | Present | Management Employee Stock Option Plans are mentioned in the prospectus framework to align long-term management incentives, though specific allocation percentages from the IPO tranche are not explicitly quantified as a separate deduction from the public offering. |
Shareholder Structure & Control
The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, reflecting its venture-backed origins. The controlling shareholder is Fore Holdings Pte. Ltd., a Singapore-domiciled entity. This entity serves as the investment vehicle for the venture capital consortium, primarily East Ventures, which has nurtured the company from its seed stage.
Pre-IPO Ownership:
Fore Holdings Pte. Ltd.: ~78.92%
Other Shareholders: ~21.08% (Comprising founders, management, and potentially smaller early-stage investors like PT Otten Coffee Indonesia).
Post-IPO Ownership (Pro Forma):
Assuming the issuance of 1.88 billion new shares and full subscription:
Fore Holdings Pte. Ltd.: Stake dilutes to approximately 62.2%. They retain clear majority control.
Public Investors: 21.08%.
Others: Stake dilutes proportionally to approximately 16.7%.
Implications of Control:
The retention of majority control by Fore Holdings Pte. Ltd. ensures strategic continuity. Decision-making regarding expansion, dividend policy (up to 40% of net profit), and executive appointments will remain firmly with the existing backers. The lack of a secondary offering (divestment) reinforces the narrative that the existing shareholders believe the company’s value creation journey is far from over. They are choosing to be diluted rather than to cash out, betting on the post-IPO growth trajectory to increase the value of their remaining holdings.
Use of Proceeds Analysis
The prospectus provides a detailed breakdown of how the raised funds (estimated ~IDR 350 billion at the midpoint) will be deployed. The allocation is overwhelmingly growth-oriented rather than focused on debt repayment, which is a bullish indicator for the company’s solvency and ambition.
- Capital Expenditure for Store Expansion (~76%):
Allocated approximately IDR 270 – 280 billion to fund the opening of roughly 140 new outlets over the next two years (2025-2026). This suggests an average Capex of IDR 1.9 – 2.0 billion per store. This figure likely covers renovation, equipment (espresso machines, grinders, refrigeration), furniture, and initial lease deposits. The relatively low cost per store compared to large-format competitors (who may spend IDR 4-5 billion) highlights the efficiency of the modular and compact store designs. The expansion targets Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities (e.g., secondary cities in Java, Sumatra, and Sulawesi), a critical strategic pivot from the saturated Jabodetabek market, aiming to capture the rising disposable income in regional urbanization hubs. - Subsidiary Capital Injection (~16-18%):
Approximately IDR 60 billion will be injected into PT Cipta Favorit Indonesia (CFI) to launch and expand a new category: Fore Donut. The plan includes opening ~30 dedicated donut outlets or integrated counters. This represents a vertical integration strategy. Coffee chains often suffer from a low “attach rate” of food items. By controlling the production and branding of a complementary food product (donuts), the Company aims to increase the Average Ticket Size (ATS) per transaction. Donuts offer high gross margins and pair naturally with coffee, potentially boosting same-store sales growth (SSSG). - Working Capital (~6%):
Approximately IDR 20 billion is allocated for the procurement of raw materials (green beans, packaging, milk) and general operational overheads. The modest allocation to working capital indicates that the company’s day-to-day operations are likely self-sustaining through operating cash flows. The IPO funds are strictly for new asset creation, not for plugging operational burn holes.
Corporate Profile & Business Model
Corporate History and Evolution
PT Fore Kopi Indonesia Tbk was established in 2018, amidst the booming “Third Wave” coffee culture in Indonesia. Originally conceived as a tech-heavy, online-to-offline (O2O) startup, the company leaned heavily on aggressive burning of cash for customer acquisition via vouchers and delivery subsidies. However, the pandemic forced a reckoning. Under the leadership of Vico Lomar, an industry veteran appointed as CEO, the company executed a rigorous turnaround strategy. This involved shuttering unprofitable locations, renegotiating supply chains, and pivoting the brand from “cheap promo coffee” to “premium affordable lifestyle.” The successful rebranding to “Grind the Essentials” marked the transition from a startup burn model to a sustainable retail business.
Business Model: The “New Retail” Hybrid
The Company operates a business model that hybridizes the efficiency of grab-and-go kiosks with the brand equity of specialty coffee shops.
Value Proposition: FORE positions itself in the “Premium Affordable” segment. The price point of IDR 20,000 – IDR 35,000 undercuts international giants like Starbucks (IDR 50,000+) significantly, while sitting slightly above the mass-market “Kopi Susu” stalls (IDR 15,000 – 18,000). This creates a “masstige” appeal for the aspirational middle class.
Product Mix: The menu is anchored by high-margin beverage innovations like the Butterscotch Sea-Salt Latte and Manuka Americano. The introduction of the Fore Donut line aims to diversify the revenue mix, reducing reliance solely on beverage sales.
Technology Integration: The proprietary Fore App is central to the business model. Unlike competitors reliant entirely on GoFood/GrabFood (which take 20-30% commissions), $FORE drives a significant portion of volume through its own app via loyalty points and exclusive deals. This allows the company to own the customer data, analyze consumption patterns, and push targeted marketing with zero platform fees.
Operational Footprint & Scalability
As of September 2024, the Company operates approximately 217 outlets across 44 cities in Indonesia, plus one international flagship in Singapore.
- Flagship Stores: Large footprint, high visibility, experience-driven (marketing expense).
- Regular Stores: Standard mall or shophouse presence with seating.
- Cloud/Satellite Kitchens: Delivery-only or pickup-only nodes with minimal capex and opex, optimizing coverage density in high-demand residential areas.
Scalability: The modular nature of the Regular and Satellite formats allows for rapid deployment. The IPO proceeds funding 140 new stores suggests a deployment rate of ~5-6 stores per month, a challenging but achievable pace given the standardized fit-out process.
Macroeconomic & Industry Context
Macroeconomic Variables
The IPO comes at a time of nuanced macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia. Indonesia’s GDP per capita has crossed the critical USD 5,000 threshold in purchasing power parity terms for the urban middle class. This demographic shift historically correlates with an explosion in discretionary spending on lifestyle F&B.
While headline inflation is managed within Bank Indonesia’s target (2.5% ±1%), food inflation remains a risk. Volatility in global robusta and arabica prices, exacerbated by climate anomalies (El Niño), poses a threat to Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). However, Indonesia being the world’s 4th largest coffee producer provides a natural hedge, allowing the Company to source locally and mitigate currency import risks. Furthermore, with the global rate cycle peaking, the cost of future debt financing is stabilizing, though the Company’s strategy relies on equity funding (IPO) rather than leverage, insulating it from immediate interest rate volatility.
Industry Structure: The Coffee Wars
The Indonesian coffee market is stratified into three distinct tiers. FORE plays in the middle, arguably the most attractive but competitive segment.
| Tier | Characteristics | Key Players | FORE’s Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1: Global Premium | High price (>IDR 50k), “Third Place” experience, high rent costs. | Challenger: Offers comparable bean quality at ~40% lower price, appealing to daily drinkers rather than occasion drinkers. | |
| Tier 2: Mass Premium | Mid price (IDR 20k-35k), tech-enabled, hybrid channels. | $FORE, Kopi Kenangan, Tomoro Coffee. | Incumbent: Competes on brand perception (“more upscale than Kenangan”) and product innovation. |
| Tier 3: Mass Market | Low price (| Janji Jiwa, Kopi Kulo, Point Coffee. | Differentiator: Differentiates through consistency, app ecosystem, and owning its stores (mostly) vs franchising. | |
Peer Performance Comparison
Below is a comparative chart of key peers in the retail F&B sector to illustrate market trends.
Comparison chart of MAPB, ENAK, FAST with timeframe 1 Year.
Financial Deep Dive
The financial analysis relies on the prospectus data, highlighting a V-shaped recovery and an inflection point in profitability.
Revenue Growth & Quality
- 2021 (Audited): IDR 107.4 Billion.
- 2022 (Audited): IDR 286.7 Billion (+167% YoY).
- 2023 (Audited): IDR 482.1 Billion (+68% YoY).
- 2024 (Audited): IDR 1.04 Trillion (+115% YoY).
Insight: The doubling of revenue in 2024 is the standout metric. This growth is a function of both store expansion (volume) and pricing power/mix (value). The ability to accelerate growth after the initial post-pandemic rebound suggests the brand has achieved product-market fit.
Profitability Analysis
- Net Income 2022: Net Loss of (IDR 59.7 Billion).
- Net Income 2023: Profit of IDR 1.15 Billion (Breakeven achieved).
- Net Income 2024: Profit of IDR 58.2 Billion.
- Net Margin (2024): ~5.6%.
The transition to substantial profitability in 2024 validates the business model. However, a 5.6% net margin is relatively thin for a retail business. It indicates high operating leverage but also vulnerability to cost spikes. The “Cosmetic” risk here is whether marketing spend was artificially suppressed in 2024 to dress up the P&L for the IPO. Investors should monitor if Selling Expenses spike post-IPO, dragging margins back down.
Cost Structure
Gross Profit (2024): ~IDR 634.9 Billion (Gross Margin ~61.0%). A 60%+ gross margin is healthy for the F&B sector, providing a buffer to absorb fixed costs. The key driver is the low cost of local green beans relative to the retail price.
Operating Expenses: High selling and administrative expenses are typical for tech-enabled chains. The efficiency of these expenses (Marketing ROI) is the key lever for future margin expansion.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
The balance sheet shows Total Assets (2024) of ~IDR 604.8 Billion against Total Liabilities of ~IDR 381.5 Billion, resulting in Total Equity of ~IDR 223.3 Billion. Post-IPO, equity is estimated to rise to ~IDR 550 – 600 Billion. The Debt-to-Equity (DER) ratio pre-IPO is approx. 1.7x. Post-IPO, this will drop significantly to <0.7x, providing a very healthy, under-leveraged balance sheet capable of supporting future debt financing if needed. Operating cash flows have turned positive, supporting the claim that IPO funds are for expansion, not survival.
Valuation & Pricing Analysis
We utilize the IPO price range of IDR 160 – IDR 202 to construct valuation scenarios based on the 2024 audited financials. Key inputs include ~8.92 Billion shares outstanding (Post-IPO), Net Income (2024) of IDR 58.2 Billion, EPS (2024) of IDR 6.52 per share, and an estimated Post-IPO Book Value of ~IDR 61 per share.
| Scenario | IPO Price | Implied Market Cap | PER (2024A) | PBV (Post-IPO) | Valuation Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | IDR 160 | IDR 1.43 Trillion | 24.5x | 2.62x | Attractive |
| Median | IDR 182 | IDR 1.62 Trillion | 27.9x | 2.98x | Fair |
| Maximum | IDR 202 | IDR 1.80 Trillion | 31.0x | 3.31x | Demanding |
Peer Benchmarking
To contextualize FORE’s valuation, we compare it against listed Indonesian F&B peers:
PT Map Boga Adiperkasa Tbk ($MAPB): Starbucks operator. Mature, slower growth. Historically trades at 30x+ PER, currently distorted by losses/recovery. PBV ~2.7x. $FORE is priced similarly to MAPB on PBV but offers significantly higher growth (115% vs single digits).
PT Champ Resto Indonesia Tbk ($ENAK): Multi-brand restaurant (Gokana, Raa Cha). PER ~15-20x. PBV ~1.8x. FORE commands a premium over ENAK. This “Growth Premium” is justified by the scalability of the coffee model vs full-service dining.
Consumer Tech (Goto/Bukalapak):
Conclusion on Pricing: At the median price of IDR 182 (PER 28x), the valuation is fair. It is not “cheap” like a value stock, but it is not “expensive” like a tech hype stock. The market is paying for the 2025-2026 growth execution.
Regulatory & Lock-Up Assessment
Compliance with POJK No. 25/2017: According to OJK regulations, any shareholder who acquired shares at a price below the IPO offering price within 6 months prior to the effective statement is subject to a mandatory lock-up of 8 months. The controlling shareholders (Fore Holdings Pte. Ltd.) acquired their stakes well before this 6-month window. Therefore, they are not strictly bound by the mandatory regulatory lock-up of POJK 25.
Voluntary Lock-Up Agreement: Recognizing the potential concern of “exit liquidity,” the controlling shareholders and key strategic investors (including East Ventures) have agreed to a voluntary lock-up period of 12 months from the listing date. This 12-month lock-up is stricter than the standard 8-month regulatory requirement. It creates a “supply vacuum” for the first year, as ~79% of the shares cannot be sold. This significantly reduces the risk of a supply glut crashing the stock price post-IPO and signals strong conviction from the insiders in the company’s 1-year roadmap.
Underwriter Analysis
The Company has appointed Joint Lead Underwriters to manage the issuance.
PT Mandiri Sekuritas (CC): A reputable state-owned brokerage often associated with institutional placements.
PT Henan Putihrai Sekuritas (HP): Known for strong retail networks.
aluna Analytics Metrics Assessment:The combination of Hype Performer and Stability Keeper could form a great match in driving this IPO on its initial sprint and through to long marathon ahead.
Risks & Mitigation Strategies
Execution Risk (Rapid Expansion): Opening 140 stores in 24 months creates logistical strain. There is a risk of selecting suboptimal locations in Tier 2 cities where purchasing power may be lower than anticipated. Mitigation: The Company employs a data-driven location strategy using app data hotspots. The modular store format allows for quick relocation if a site underperforms.
Commodity Price Fluctuation: Coffee beans and sugar are soft commodities subject to global price volatility. A 20% spike in robusta prices could erode the 60% Gross Margin. Mitigation: Volume procurement contracts and the ability to source domestic beans (Indonesia is a top producer) provide a partial natural hedge.
Competitive Intensity: The barrier to entry for a coffee kiosk is low. Competitors like Tomoro Coffee or Kopi Kenangan could engage in a price war. Mitigation: FORE’s brand equity (“Premium Affordable”) creates a defensive moat against bottom-tier price warriors. The Fore App creates high switching costs for loyal users holding points.
Market Liquidity: Listing on the Development Board with a smaller market cap (~IDR 1.6T) may result in lower daily trading volumes compared to LQ45 stocks, leading to volatility. Mitigation: The 21% public float is reasonably healthy to ensure diversity of ownership.
Conclusion & Recommendation
The Fundamental Investor View: $FORE represents one of the few profitable, high-growth consumer plays available on the IDX. The company has proven its ability to pivot from a cash-burn model to a sustainable retail operation. The 2024 financial results (Net Profit IDR 58B) serve as a strong proof of concept. At a PER of ~28x, the stock is fairly priced for its growth rate. It is not a bargain, but the quality of growth (115% revenue CAGR) justifies the multiple. Verdict: Accumulate/Subscribe.
The IPO Hunter View: The setup for a short-term trade is favorable. 100% new shares mean all money goes to the company, and the 12-month lock-up by controllers removes supply overhang. The nominal price under IDR 200 is psychologically attractive to retail traders. Early indications of oversubscription suggest strong retail appetite. Verdict: Subscribe.
aluna Analytics Rating
| Component | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 8/10 | Strong “New Retail” model, proven pivot to profitability, scalable format. |
| Financial Strength | 7/10 | Profitable (2024), clean balance sheet post-IPO, though net margins (5.6%) remain thin. |
| Valuation | 7/10 | PER 24x-31x is reasonable (GARP) for >100% growth. Not distressed, not hyped. |
| Underwriter | 9/10 | HP well-known to give reasonable capital gain, while CC meant for long run stability. |
| IPO Hunter Appeal | 8/10 | Clean structure (no warrants/divestment), extended lock-up, strong retail narrative. |
| OVERALL RATING | 8 / 10 | SUBSCRIBE |
Disclaimer
aluna Analytics is an independent research collective that operates without affiliation to any financial institution, broker, or advisory firm. We do not hold licenses as a securities dealer, investment advisor, or portfolio manager.
All materials published by aluna Analytics are created solely for informational and educational purposes. They reflect independent analytical interpretation and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice, solicitation, or endorsement of any security or strategy.
Market data, opinions, and projections presented herein are subject to change and may not predict future results. Readers remain fully responsible for any financial decisions made based on the information provided. We strongly encourage conducting personal due diligence and consulting a licensed professional before making investment commitments.
aluna Analytics is not regulated by the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia (OJK) and does not offer investment management or brokerage services. All content is presented in good faith, aiming to foster research literacy and informed market perspectives.
